Publications

This page contains all reports, peer-reviewed publications and RESTORE+ briefs generated in the course of the project.

Project Reports

Mobilising Funds for the Restoration of Tropical Forests

The working paper summarizes the insights of the study of main restoration related policies  in Brazil and Indonesia. This included assessing environmental and socio-economic impacts, and building on land use opportunity cost modelling, exploring innovative financial mechanisms to mobilise private sector investment to protect tropical forests.
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Water regime scenarios and rice productivity modelling in Indonesian peatlands

This report elaborates how spatially and temporally explicit water regime data were generated for a range of peatland rewetting intensities and land uses. The dataset produced enable scenario-consistent quantification of potential commodity production for the rewetting intensities and land uses in Indonesian peatlands.
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Spatial simulation infrastructure for Indonesia v.0.1

This report describes version 0.1 of the Spatial simulation infrastructure for the bio-physical modelling in Indonesia and the procedures of its creation.  This provides the RESTORE+ project bio-physical and economic optimization modelling suite with the necessary inputs on terrain, soil, and sub-national administrative units.
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Harmonized peatland dataset for Indonesia v.0.1
k

This document describes version 0.1 of the harmonized peatland dataset for bio-physical modelling in Indonesia with the primary purpose to provide bio-physical models with consistent input data on peat and mineral soil distribution in Indonesia and with the peat parameters necessary for proper representation of peat hydrology in simulations.                           
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A demonstration of national-scale thematically-detailed land cover mapping using automated methodology, cloud computing, and crowdsourcing in Indonesia

The report outlines the methodology to produce national-scale land cover/land use map datasets for the requirements of thematically-detailed national-scale restoration assessment in Indonesia.
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Tree cover loss detection using optical and radar sensors

The working paper elaborates on the potential of radar and optical remote sensing analysis to map tree cover loss in tropical forest landscapes in a case study for South Sumatera and East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
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Mid-term Report

The Mid-term Report intends to provide a summarizing review of the first half of the project and presents first results on how the project approaches the full complexity of restoration efforts. It contains detailed methodological explanations as well as reflections of progress and status quo.
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Technical Report Brazil 2019

This report describes the activities and developments of RESTORE+ in Brazil for the first two years of the project (2017-2019). It comprises relevant background information, elaboration on the methodological approach and activities as well as first insights gained in the covered period.
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Inception Report

The Inception Report of the Project Kick-Off Workshop provides detailed information on the project background and outputs as well as on the planned methodology. It summarizes the workshop's discussions on expected project outputs, activities and next steps.
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RESTORE+ Briefs

Exploring land-use returns to deliver incentives for restoration in Mato Grosso, Brazil

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Restoration and Market for Environmental Reserve Quotas in Mato Grosso, Brazil

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Land-use implications of future ethanol demand in Brazil

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Using machine learning to map Indonesia’s restoration potential

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Biodiversity intactness modelling in Brazil

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Developing a forest reference emissions level (FREL)
in the Congo Basin

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Brazil’s NDC and forest restoration targets: future land use and agriculture implications

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Cerrado and Amazon biomes LU and LC maps 2001-2016

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Peer-reviewed Publications

Doing burden-sharing right to deliver natural climate solutions for carbon
dioxide removal

Nature-Based Solutions, December 2022
With a focus on tropical developing countries, the authors address the issue of equitability and uncertainty in sharing the burden of climate change mitigation. Employing a diverse set of allocation methods on a wide range of global emissions scenarios revealed how burden-sharing exercises could foster higher ambition if used to inform voluntary cooperation mechanisms.
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Committed to restoring tropical forests: an overview of Brazil's and Indonesia's restoration targets and policies

Environmental Research Letters, September 2022
The authors identify the main restoration targets of Brazil and Indonesia and the policies supporting their implementation in both countries. They provide a descriptive overview of these restoration-supportive policies and discuss the main challenges that Brazil and Indonesia face in the implementation of their restoration commitments.
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No aggregate deforestation reductions from rollout of community land titles in Indonesia yet

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, October 2021
Looking at the early effects of the social forestry program in Indonesia, the authors find that contrary to the objective of the program, community titles aimed at conservation did not decrease deforestation; if anything, they tended to increase forest loss. In contrast, community titles in zones aimed at timber production decreased deforestation, albeit from higher baseline forest loss rates.
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Implementing Brazil’s Forest Code: a vital contribution
to securing forests and conserving biodiversity

Biodiversity and Conservation, April 2021
Meeting Brazil’s ambitious national commitments on both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation depends on securing its reserves of forest carbon and biodiversity. Using modelled land use change projections for the whole of the country, the paper shows that full implementation and enforcement of the law has the potential to contribute to conserving biodiversity.
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Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal

One Earth Commentary, August 2020
The 1.5°C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed..
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Impacts of Public and Private Sector Policies on Soybean and Pasture Expansion in Mato Grosso—Brazil from 2001 to 2017

Land, January 2020
The paper analyzes the effectiveness of policies, as the new Forest Code (FC) and supply chain arrangements, considering the trajectories of agricultural expansion in the state of Mato Grosso. The data and models show the effectiveness of those policies to reduce direct conversion from forests to crop production but also indicate that soybean expansion has caused indirect impacts by replacing pasture and causing pasture expansion elsewhere.
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Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their land-use implications

Energy Policy, September 2019
The results presented here suggest that future ethanol demand in Brazil should not substantially affect food production nor native forest. This outcome will however depend on the compliance with the sugarcane agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) by the ethanol sector in Brazil.
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Modelling Burnt Areas in Indonesia:
the FLAM Approach

Forests, July 2018
Large-scale wildfires affect millions of hectares of land in Indonesia annually, and produce severe smoke haze pollution and carbon emissions, with negative impacts on climate change, health, economy, and biodiversity. In this study is presented a mechanistic fire model to estimate burnt areas in Indonesia for the first time.
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Independent data for transparent monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector – What do stakeholders think and need?

Environmental Science & Policy, April 2018
By assessing the stakeholders’ data needs for estimating GHG emissions in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, the study shows how independent data, methods and tools as well as open and free data increase the transparency and create more legitimacy with and serve the diverse needs of various stakeholders. This would improve the currently moderate satisfaction of stakeholders with open and freely available datasets.
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Forest protection and permanence of reduced emissions

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, August 2022
This paper seeks to analyze the longevity of emissions reductions from different policies to slow down and stop deforestation. It finds that permanence depends both on the probability of policy reversals and the risk of emissions overshooting and argues that as policies to prevent deforestation or reduce emissions otherwise are reversible, permanence should be understood and discussed in a probabilistic and time-dependent framework.
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Enhancing climate change resilience of ecological restoration — A framework for action

Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, June 2021
Based on literature review, the article presents a framework that identified seven areas of restoration design and implementation in which climate change is important to address. A scan of current restoration projects focussing on two regions revealed limited inclusion of these considerations in practice. Building on these examples, the presented framework can be used as a tool to support global restoration targets.
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The economic value of tropical forests in meeting global climate stabilization goals

Global Sustainability, November 2020
Conserving tropical forests has many benefits, from protecting biodiversity, sustaining local communities, and safeguarding climate. While previous studies have demonstrated the contribution of tropical forests to mitigate climate change, the article shows that tropical forest protection can ‘flatten the curve’ of the costs of transition to climate stability, estimating tens of trillions of dollars in policy cost savings.
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The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

Science of The Total Environment, May 2020
By using the spatially explicit partial equilibrium global land use model GLOBIOM-Brazil, projections of the climate change impacts on main Brazilian agricultural commodities were generated. Central findings are the expected displacement of soybean and corn production toward subtropical regions of Brazil and the decrease in soybean and corn production, especially in the Matopiba region.
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Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a
High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

Forests, December 2019
The article presents the establishment of a forest reference emissions level (FREL/FRL) for southern Cameroon adjusted to societal megatrends of strong population- and economic growth combined with rapid urbanization. It demonstrates what can be done with available information and data, but most importantly outlines pathways to further improve the quality of future FREL/FRL’s in light of possibly accessing performance-based payments.
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Expanding the Soy Moratorium to Brazil’s Cerrado

Science Advances, July 2019
The article presents the first quantitative analysis of expanding the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) from the Brazilian Amazon to the Cerrado biome. This would prevent the direct conversion of 3.6 million ha of native vegetation to soybeans by 2050. The findings show that urgent action is required, including a zero native vegetation conversion agreement such as the SoyM, to preserve the Cerrado’s bio-diversity and ecosystem services.
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Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil's Forest Code.

Environmental Research Letters, July 2018
The spatially explicit assessment of Brazil's 2012 Forest Code through the year 2050 presented here, shows that, if rigorously enforced, the Forest Code could prevent a net loss of 53.4 million hectares (Mha) of forest and native vegetation by 2050, 43.1 Mha (81%) of which are in the Amazon alone.

This article, published in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters (ERL) by editor IOP Publishing, has been chosen as an Editors' “Featured Article”.
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Comment on “The extent of forest in dryland biomes”

Science, Technical Comments, October 2017
The comment discusses a recent publication by Bastin et al. (Reports, 12 May 2017, p. 635) which claims to have discovered 467 million hectares of new dryland forest. The authors argue that these additional areas are not completely “new” and point at the shortcoming that not all sources of uncertainty were considered and the uncertainty could be much higher than the reported value of 3.5%
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What influences the implementation of natural climate solutions? A systematic map and review of the evidence

Environmental Research Letters, December 2021
Based on a systematic review of contextual factors that influence the implementation of natural climate solutions (NCS), the paper finds that implementation of NCS rely on a suite of interlinked enabling factors. This highlights the need to better understand what trends may be generalizable to inform best practices  and where more nuance may be needed for interpreting research findings.
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Satellite Image Time Series Analysis for Big Earth
Observation Data

Remote Sensing, June 2021
The development of analytical software for big Earth observation data faces several challenges. This paper describes sits, an open-source R package for satellite image time series analysis using machine learning. The article shows that this approach produces high accuracy for land use and land cover maps through a case study in the Cerrado biome, one of the world’s fast moving agricultural frontiers in Brazil for the year 2018.
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Logging residues for charcoal production through forest management in the Brazilian Amazon: Economicgains and forest regrowth effects

Environmental Research Letters, September 2020
To assess the impact of forest management practices, primary harvesting data were collected and the  impacts on forest dynamics was analyzed for 13 forest plots in the Brazilian Amazon. By exploring selective logging scenarios, the authors conclude that sustainable forest management could enhance forest productivity and deliver economic benefit from otherwise unexploited logging residues.
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Water productivity and footprint of major Brazilian rainfed crops – A spatially explicit analysis of crop management scenarios

Agricultural Water Management, February 2020
The quantification of water use for rainfed production of crops, and simulation of management scenario for Brazil shows how green water is a primary resource for their production, both in the present and in prospective scenarios. The results show possibilities of improvement of green water productivity, and limited options for supplemental blue water use.
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Land-Management Options for Greenhouse Gas Removal and Their Impacts on Ecosystem Services and the Sustainable Development Goals

Annual Review of Environment and Resources, October 2019
Land-management options for greenhouse gas removal (GGR) include afforestation or reforestation, wetland restoration, soil carbon sequestration, biochar, terrestrial enhanced weathering, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The article assesses the opportunities and risks associated with these options through the lens of their potential impacts on ecosystem services and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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Opportunities to Optimize the Palm Oil Supply Chain in Sumatra, Indonesia

Energies, January 2019
This study investigates opportunities for harnessing the full potential of palm oil residues by using the BeWhere model. It models the palm oil supply chain in a geographically explicit way while considering regional infrastructures in Sumatra Island, Indonesia. Findings show that a more efficient palm oil supply chain can pave the way for the country to meet up to 50% of its national bioenergy targets by 2025, and emission reductions of up to 40 MtCO2eq/year.
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Monitoring deforestation in rainforests using satellite data: a pilot study from Kalimantan, Indonesia

Forests, July 2018
Monitoring large forest areas is presently feasible with satellite remote sensing. This study evaluated, for the first time, the potential of using freely available medium resolution (30 m) Landsat time series data for deforestation monitoring in tropical rainforests of Kalimantan, Indonesia.
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Safeguarding sustainability through forest certification mapping

Forest Policy and Economics, July 2017
How can we ensure forest protection and sustainable forest biomass production at the same time? A first-ever global map of certified forest areas, based on a participatory and collaborative mapping approach, contributes to the answer.
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